2023 Mexico Open odds, expert picks, sleepers: Can Jon Rahm repeat as a huge favorite?
The PGA Tour returns to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, to contest the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. This will be the second consecutive year the PGA Tour is teeing it up at Vidanta Vallarta. Jon Rahm won last year’s title as a heavy favorite and returned this year as the reigning Masters champion. He took the week off last week at the Zurich Classic and probably needs at least another week to decompress from winning the Masters and dealing with the aftermath, but he is here to fulfill his duties as the returning champion.
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He will be teeing it up as an even heavier favorite this year against a field that is a bit weaker than it was last season. Rahm won as a +500 favorite last season and comes into this week at +250 to defend his title at the Greg Norman-designed course. While Rahm was teeing it up at the Mexico Open in 2022, hungry for a win this year he will have the added duties of being the defending champion and having everyone wanting to congratulate him on his 2023 Masters win. Tony Finau is the only other top 20 player from the official world golf rankings in the field. Finau is also the only other player priced above $10,000 on DraftKings this week.
With only one year of stats available for Vidanta Vallarta, it is difficult to predict what statistical profile we should target this week. The par 71 measures more than 7,400 yards and can play longer as the paspalum fairways don’t tend to run out. The paspalum fairways and greens featured at Vidanta Vallarta are the biggest factors for any model you should build this week. Ball striking will be key, as always, with less attention given to driving accuracy. The paspalum greens at a resort course mean that we won’t have to worry too much about putting statistics, but the greens are well bunkered, so around the green stats shouldn’t be ignored.
Betting Slip
Wyndham Clark +1900 has gained more than 9 strokes on approach in his last two measured events. He finished fifth and third in the two events that weren’t measured so we might assume he was striking the ball pretty well. His driving accuracy hurt him at the RBC Heritage where he finished T29, but that won’t be a factor here. He is knocking on the door of a win, which might come this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard +3000 has a world of talent and should be a nice fit for this particular course. He finished second at Corales Puntacana on paspalum greens and made a real charge to try and win over Matt Wallace. I am a little concerned that he has been less accurate off the tee lately, which led to losing strokes off the tee at the Valero Texas Open, but it doesn’t worry me enough to fade him. The ball striking has been stellar as he has gained 4.99 strokes or more on approach in three out of his last five measured events.
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Aaron Rai +5500 was in contention for a high finish here last year before a final-round 72 sank his chances. He has been good lately but hasn’t quite put it all together. He led after the first round at the RBC Heritage but then lost his stroke with the putter and fell back on the weekend. He’s 13th on tour with approach shots from 200-225 yards which should be a key stat this week.
Ben Martin +6500 has three top 10s in his last six stroke play events. His comeback season has largely been helped by his approach play. He is fifth in the field in strokes gained on approach and seventh in the field in strokes gained ball striking over his last 36 rounds. His last time out on paspalum, he finished T8 at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Brandon Wu +6500 made a lot of money playing on paspalum in 2022. He finished T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, T28 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, and T2 here at the Mexico Open. He’s been a bit of a hit-and-miss this year, with his best finish being his T2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His putter has been the issue lately, and there’s no better cure for putting woes than paspalum greens.
Sleepers
Charley Hoffman +15000 made the cut at the Zurich Classic teamed with Nick Watney. That should be enough for anyone to think he may be starting to play some better golf. I like him a little bit this week because of how well he played at the Valero Texas Open and how his putting woes shouldn’t be an issue this week. He has gained on approach in six straight measured events and gained more than four strokes off the tee at the Valero Texas Open.
Augusto Nunez +18000 struggled a bit in the fall after earning his promotion to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour. Since January, he has only missed two cuts and has shown that he has some skills with his irons. He is 16th on the PGA Tour near the hole on approaches from 175-200 yards. He is fifth near the hole in approaches from 225 to 250 yards. He finished T15 at the Puerto Rico Open and T26 at the Corales Puntacana Championship on paspalum greens.
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DFS Plays
Jon Rahm $12,000 should be priced at $14,000 with how much he is favored to win and where he ranks when you run your model. Rahm has a ton of pride and won’t show up to a course without giving it maximum effort. The best way to gain access to Rahm is in DFS unless you want to parlay a Rahm win with a few other bets to make it worthwhile. As long as you’re comfortable fading the 9K range, I think it’s the right choice to use Rahm this week.
Tony Finau $10,700 is priced $1,300 less than Jon Rahm and is almost on an island all by himself with no one priced close. Finau finished T2 here last year and was 20-1 to win so it made it easy to grab a nice hedge on Rahm late on Sunday after Tony shot a 63 on Sunday to put himself in contention. Finau hasn’t been as good off the tee this season as he has been over the last few years. He has lost strokes off the tee in four straight measured tournaments. He is a distant second in my model to Rahm, but he’s also way ahead of third place because of his superior ball striking.
Wyndham Clark $9,700 is striking the ball better than he ever has, but it’s hard to pay this much for him unless you are willing to fade both Rahm and Finau. Is Clark that much better than Ben Martin right now, and you get Martin at an $1,100 discount? I have some GPP lineups where my highest-priced guy is either Clark or Hojgaard, but most of my lineups have Rahm or Finau at the top.
Nicolai Hojgaard $9,500 See above.
Patrick Rodgers $9,300 got off to a nice start in the fall but fell off sharply when he returned to the PGA Tour in January. His struggles mainly came down to how he swung his irons, leading to six missed cuts in eight tournaments. He found something heading into the Valero Texas Open and gained more than 10.8 strokes tee to green. He followed that up by gaining 5.8 strokes on approach at the RBC Heritage. To top it off, he finished 10th here last season, so he has some confidence on the course to keep it going.
Aaron Rai $8,900 See above.
Ben Martin $8,600 See above.
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Emiliano Grillo $8,500 has some things I like about him this week, and he has some things where I am a bit cautious. He finished T7 at the RBC Heritage, so we could get him as he begins a hot streak, but we must see how he did it to ensure that it wasn’t a fluke. He gained 3.85 strokes on approach shots which is key this week, but he last over 2.4 strokes off the tee and has struggled with distance for much of the year. He gained more than 2 strokes with his putter, but he has been putting better since the Players Championship. He gained 5.76 strokes around the green, which is well above his career best and looks like an outlier when you look at how he has been playing. I went into this week thinking I would play him, but after breaking it down, I am leaning towards Ben Martin or Alex Smalley in this price range.
Alex Smalley $8,400 burst out in the fall with two top-five finishes following a T11 in Bermuda. During his great run in the fall, he was excellent with his iron play, regularly gaining over 2 strokes on the field in each tournament. His putter went cold, leading to his iron play returning to earth. Lately, he has started to pick it up again with his approach shots as he has gained over 4.5 strokes on approach combined in his last three tournaments. His putter still struggles, but the paspalum greens should see Smalley get back on track.
Brandon Wu $8,300 See above.
Stephan Jaeger $8,200 made the cut in nine out of his last 11 tournaments and gained strokes on approach in four straight before he missed the cut at the RBC Heritage. He finished 15th here last year against a stronger field and is priced right for what he delivers.
MJ Daffue $8,000 has made seven cuts in a row and has three top 21 finishes in his last five stroke play tournaments. He regularly gains strokes off the tee and has been solid across the board lately.
Dylan Wu $7,500 made seven straight cuts before missing the cut at the Zurich Classic in the team event. He averages .93 strokes gained on the field over his last 36 rounds. He has been hot with his putter lately, but his numbers are still solid everywhere.
Akshay Bhatia $7,400 finished T2 at the Puerto Rico Open and then finished T24 at the Corales Puntacana Championship so he is well versed in paspalum. He’s an up-and-coming star on the PGA Tour, and this course should fit him well.
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Charley Hoffman $7,200 See above.
Augusto Núñez $7,000 See above.
Sean O’Hair $7,000 is one of the guys on the PGA Tour I always root for. I’ve seen him firsthand be great with fans and families at the course, and he’s dealt with a lot in his career on and off the course. He’s playing some good golf right now, making five out of his last six cuts and had a chance to bank some nice money at the Zurich Classic before fading on Sunday. This is a big spot for O’Hair, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he posted a top-30 finish.
One and Done
Andrew DeWitt: $8,121,966.22 (1 winner, 13 of 15 cuts)
Dennis Esser: $4,739,756 (11 of 15 cuts)
John Hayes: $4,439,313.37 (12 of 15 cuts)
If you want to see the golfers we have used through the first part of the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here.
Hayes: I’m picking first this week, which means I’ve fallen into last place and need a result this week in Mexico. I’m tempted to take World No. 1 Jon Rahm vs. a weak field but want to save him for a big-money event in the second half of the season. Instead, I’m going with Wyndham Clark who has three top-ten finishes in his last four starts.
Esser: I am going with Patrick Rodgers and hoping his ball-striking form can continue to be on point. If I catch Andrew DeWitt it will be a miracle at this point, but I am going to do my best to push him until the end.
DeWitt: I’m going off the board this week with Akshay Bhatia. He’s an up-and-comer like Esser mentioned in his DFS section, and he’s had success playing these resort courses at other PGA Tour stops. His distance will be an advantage this week. The other golfer that grabbed my attention is Gary Woodland, but I’ve second-guessed myself before this year, and my second pick ends up being way worse than my first (Rory missing cut at The Players) so I’m going to stick with Bhatia as my pick.
(Photo of Jon Rahm: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
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